Nobody can yet predict exactly what the ramifications will be now the United Kingdom has voted to leave the European Union but UK science commentators are already foreshadowing Brexit Mark 2 – a Brain Exit of researchers.
Brexit has created incredible uncertainty. The potential disruption that it may cause to the many international collaborative research programs involving the UK is something the international scientific community could certainly have done without.
Whatever form the Brexit negotiations take, and however long the timeline, the disruption is real. It will be more so if Brexit causes still wider political and economic instability.
Aftershocks in Australia
There will likely be some aftershocks felt here too for some considerable time given the extent that Australian researchers engage in collaborative programs with both the UK and the rest of Europe.
Firstly some facts. UK researchers are among the most internationally collaborative in the world. Around 60% of the roughly 120,000 research articles published each year by UK-based authors are co-authored with international collaborators. More than half of these are in the EU.
According to the 2013 report on International Comparative Performance of the UK Research Base, more than 70% of UK researchers working between 1996 and 2012 published papers while affiliated with non-UK institutions.
Unsurprisingly, the more internationally collaborative researchers are significantly more productive than those researchers who stayed at home and were more inwardly focused.
About 28% of academic staff in UK universities are non-UK citizens. Again, more than half of these are from the EU.
If, as has been suggested, the UK ramps up restrictions on mobility and work entitlements, it is possible that many of these researchers will choose or be forced to leave.
Until now, Britain has been a very significant net beneficiary of EU research funds. It received an estimated €8.8 billion funding between 2007-2013 on the strength of an estimated €5.4 billion contribution. This made it the second most successful nation behind Germany.
Looking forward, it is estimated that UK research could be £1 billion worse off each year as a consequence of the decision to leave the EU.
Beyond the horizon
The most significant impact could potentially be felt by research programs funded through the Horizon 2020 program.