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Dr Jennifer Perret
Middle aged people at high risk of COPD may be identified early by an Australian-developed prediction tool that will allow interventions to be implemented before lung damage has occurred, respiratory physicians in Victoria say.
Using information that is readily accessible from patients, researchers at Melbourne University designed and validated a COPD risk-prediction model that is able to accurately calculate the 10-year risk of post-bronchodilator airflow obstruction in people in their forties.
The tool could be used for early identification of high risk individuals who would benefit from serial spirometry and smoking cessation strategies, according to researchers, led by Dr Jennifer Perret, a respiratory and sleep physician at the Austin Hospital and the Centre for Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health.
In a paper published in BMJ Open Respiratory Research, the researchers describe how they developed their risk prediction model using data derived from 5729 participants in the Tasmanian Longitudinal Health Study (TAHS) at age 41–45 years who did not have self-reported COPD/emphysema at baseline , of whom 2407 had post-bronchodilator spirometry and smoking status at age 51–55 years.
The model comprised nine questions on known risk factors and resembled those of a basic respiratory assessment that covered participant sex, respiratory symptoms, smoking, asthma and occupation.
The final prediction model area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUCROC) was 80.8%, with a sensitivity of 80.3%, specificity of 69.1%, positive predictive value (PPV) 11.1% and negative predictive value (NPV) 98.7%.