COVID-related disruptions to bowel cancer screening, diagnosis and treatment in Australia are likely to lead to more than a thousand additional cancer deaths over the next decade, a modelling study suggests.
But many of these deaths could still potentially be prevented if further mitigation strategies are implemented, according to researchers from the Daffodil Centre, a collaboration between Cancer Council NSW and the University of Sydney.
In their study, researchers from the centre modelled the impact of pandemic-related disruptions on colorectal cancer cases and deaths in both Australia and Canada.
The analysis, published in PLOS One (link here) showed that colorectal cancer screening rates dropped by 6.3% in Australia and by 40% in Canada in 2020.
In Australia in 2021 there was a 7.2% decrease in any colorectal cancer treatment procedures compared to expected numbers. It was estimated that 1.1% of patients would experience a wait for treatment in 2020 of two or more weeks longer than typical waiting times; in 2021 this would increase to 23.9%.
The modelling showed that over the period 2020–2030, the combined impact of disruptions to screening, diagnosis, and treatment were predicted to lead to a 2.4% increase in colorectal cancer mortality in Australia.
These changes would lead to an estimated increase of an additional 234 cases of colorectal cancer and 1,186 deaths in Australia over 2020–2030; compared to a scenario with no screening disruption or diagnostic/treatment delays.