Generic semaglutide could be produced for as little as $40AUD per person per year in some markets, according to a new analysis, though Australian patients face a longer wait for cheaper medicine due to patent protections extending to 2038.

An international team of researchers drew on World Bank population data and pharmaceutical ingredient shipment records to map the potential reach of generics once semaglutide’s patents, currently held by Novo Nordisk, begin expiring from 2026.

Writing in Obesity [link here], the authors estimated a generic injectable product could be available in up to 162 countries by the end of this year, covering 47% of patients with obesity and 49% of those with T2D globally.

Using cost-plus methodologies, they calculated injectable products could become available for between $40 (28USD) and $191 per person year for treatment-naive patients on a 1.7mg weekly dose. Oral formulations could cost from around $266 per person year, they said.

“Lower prices through generic access could enable earlier intervention for obesity, integration into primary care, and a shift from treating advanced metabolic complications toward preventing long-term morbidity,” the authors wrote.

Why Australia will wait

Although core semaglutide patents start expiring globally in 2026, Novo Nordisk has built what the authors called a “patent thicket” of more than 20 patent families, comprising 220 patents across 28 countries, with protections running to 2033.

In Australia, the patent covering semaglutide’s primary compound does not expire until September 2029, according to IP Australia data. Other related patents extend protection to 2031 and 2038. Generic manufacturers would also need to clear TGA registration before any product could be sold locally.

Novo Nordisk declined to comment on its patent arrangements or their expiry.

The TGA has separately issued strong warnings against importing unregistered GLP-1RA products into Australia.

The authors cautioned that rapid generic development in India and China would not necessarily translate to faster access elsewhere. “The absence or expiry of patent protection does not in itself ensure rapid generic entry, as regulatory approval requirements, data exclusivity provisions, and limitations in manufacturing, procurement, and distribution infrastructure may continue to pose significant challenges independent of patent status,” they wrote.