Gout is strongly linked to serum uric acid concentration over time, but even so, less than half of patients with levels of 10 mg/dL will go on to develop gout over 15 years, New Zealand research shows.

Presenting her findings at the ACR congress Professor Nicola Dalbeth from the University of Auckland in New Zealand said the largest individual participant data analysis to date (>18,000 participants) found the incidence of gout rose from about 1% after 15 years in patients with a serum uric acid (sUA) level of less than 6 mg/dL to almost 49% in those with levels at 10 mg/dL or higher.

Female gender was linked to a 30% decreased risk of gout (HR 0.70 (95% CI0.58, 0.86) P=0.001) and European ethnicity almost halved the risk (HR 0.53 (0.42, 0.67) P <0.001).

Dr Dalbeth said the findings showed that a long period of hyperuricameia preceded the development of clinical gout but that there were also other factors at play in its pathogenesis.

She said the analysis provided cumulative incidence estimates that could help guide discussions with hyperuricaemic individuals about their risk of developing gout over time.

See abstract here.